CCall me Samwell Tarly, because I'm studying the history of Westeros again. While we’re only midway through season 3 of the Game of Thrones prequel, I can't help but try and predict what events and characters from George R. R. Martin's books we'll see next. Here's what I, an amateur fictional historian, think will happen on House of the Dragon season 3. Spoilers ahead, in a way!
Gaming out what's going to happen over the next and final two seasons of House of the Dragon is an interesting task. On one hand, the fact that they have only 1.5 more seasons to finish telling this story should make it easy to figure out what will happen when. The book is completed, after all. But the Dance of the Dragons civil war is only covered in a small section of Fire & Blood, the House Targaryen "history book" that House of the Dragon is based on. The story of the few survivors keeps going. And like real nonfictional historical events, there was more than one event that marked the end of the war. So we kind of know how and when the show will end, but also we don't.
So, how am I going to figure this out? Quick caveat: The book is by George R. R. Martin IRL, obviously, but the title page adds a fun narrative convention by saying that Martin is simply transcribing a text “by” Archmaester Gyldayn of the Citadel of Oldtown. Because the book has an unreliable narrator, small changes from the text to the show are way easier to justify and not necessarily going “against” canon.
In the history of Westeros, this war begins in the year 129 AC and ends in the year 131 AC. House of the Dragon season 1 started more than a decade before the war, and then ended right at the beginning of 129 AC. The second season took place in 129 AC. I think it would be safe to bet that season 3 will roughly cover most of the events of 130 AC, and season 4 will go from the end of 130 AC to the beginning of 131 AC, and possibly beyond.
Several major characters could, and probably will, die in season 3. One of the reasons that House of the Dragon is fated to be a four-season show is that, unfortunately, most of the main characters do not survive this civil war. Don't read on if you don't want to get spoiled... I'm talking Red Wedding levels of spoilage, here.
The season 3 premiere covered a major event.
At long last, the House of the Dragon season 3 began with the "Battle of the Gullet.” It involved the warships from the Triarchy that Tyland Lannister secured in the season 2 finale, as well as Corlys Velaryon the Sea Snake's fleet. The battle has thousands of casualties, including Rhaenyra's heir Jace and his dragon Vermax, and permanently destroys areas of Driftmark. (There's a reason that Game of Thrones never went to Driftmark and we never met members of House Velaryon before this prequel series.)
Fire & Blood’s account of The Gullet also involves the young Prince Aegon and Viserys Targaryen, Rhaenyra and Daemon's sons, who at the end of season 2 left the Vale to travel across the narrow sea to Pentos. In the book their ship, the "Gay Abandon," gets intercepted. Baby Viserys is taken prisoner by Admiral Sharako Lohar (Tyland's bestie/mud-wrestling champion bestie played by Abigail Thorn) and baby Aegon escapes on the back of his dragon.
That did not happen in the season 3 premiere—unsurprising, as their dragons on the show are the size of cats. Plus, Sharako Lohar died in the first episode–a pretty big change from the book. That said, I would not be shocked if something happens with the little Targ kiddos on their journey later on this season.
Get ready for more witch-y nonsense...
Daemon may have escaped the haunted castle of Harrenhal with a new feminist outlook on life, but Aemond Targaryen arrives toward the beginning of season 3, which we saw in episode 2. Now it’s his turn to suffer at the hands of Alys Rivers after the Greens retake the castle and Aemond kills Simon Strong. In the book, Alys actually gets pregnant and claims that Aemond is the father of her bastard child. So we'll certainly be seeing more of her.
There's also a rumor, according to the book, that Alys seduced Ser Criston Cole. We didn’t see that in the show and now he’s dead, so... they must have decided to omit this.
Speaking of witchy nonsense… the prophecy
In season 3, Daemon had a vision at Harrenhal that was basically the prophecy that Viserys told Rhaenyra about in the series premiere. Daemon tells Rhaenyra in episode 2, “I saw it, Rhaenyra. I saw a girl with silver hair in a desert far away and there were dragons at her breast. If it were true, what my brother told you, what would you do?” He uses it to motivate her to get out of bed and go take King’s Landing, but this prophecy was not a part of the book at all, so it will be interesting to see how the show uses it going forward. Emma D’arcy said in the post-episode breakdown featurette that there is a religious fanatacism brewing in Rhaenyra, a belief that her rule is pre-ordained. That isn’t as present in the book, but feels like a personality trait worth paying attention to.
Queen Rhaenyra will continue to lose King's Landing.
The big power shift in season 3 occurs when Rhaenyra lays siege to the city where she grew up and finally gets to sit on the Iron Throne. The victory at the Gullet and Rhaenyra’s anger over her latest son’s death paves the way for this to happen.
In the books and on the show, Rhaenyra beheads Otto Hightower when she gets to King’s Landing, and imprisons both Alicent and Helaena. In the book, a short while later, Helaena dies by suicide after jumping from a tower... but the series may reveal she was pushed. Me personally? I think they won’t be able to resist a murder mystery with her. But it really, really seems like she’s not going to make it through the season alive. At the end of episode 6, Alicent leaves her alone in King’s Landing. Foreboding AF!
Why not just end House of the Dragon there, you ask? Because the war doesn't end there! It gets very messy and complicated. While she was once known as the Realm's Delight, the people of King's Landing turn on her. Even the Velaryon navy join the uprising against her. Her hold has already started to crack in season 3. She gets paranoid, and honestly, for good reason!
Speaking of betrayal, both Ulf and Hugh–the bastard dragon riders we got to know in season 2–will switch sides and start fighting for the Greens. They defect at a battle called the First Battle of Tumbleton, which I predict will happen towards the end of season 3. The groundwork has been laid already, with the afore-mentioned Ormund Hightower taking Tumbleton. (There is a Second Battle of Tumbleton that I think will be a big season 4 blow-out. It kills off as many named characters as we expected from that one battle in Game of Thrones season 8, if you catch my drift...)
The Butcher’s Ball happened just* like book.
Not only was Criston Cole’s death satisfying because he sucks, it was satisfying because it was almost completely book accurate! The Green Army did encounter soldiers pretending to be dead who suddenly jumped up and attacked them. Criston did die trying to surrender during a parlay. And they did lose the battle that ensued.
*Except that it wasn’t House Tully pulling this ruse in the book, a woman named Black Aly killed him on the show instead of a man named Red Robb Rivers, and Aemond Targaryen was supposed to be there. The show instead kept him tossing and turning and smooching in Harrenhaal.
King Aegon will take Dragonstone.
Meanwhile, Alicent's oldest son is plotting. The usurper King left at the end of season 2 with Larys Strong, and they intended to go to Bravos. In the book, they only make it as far as Dragonstone. There, Aegon stages a coup against Rhaenyra on her home turf. They basically switch places. Season 3 is already drawing this out, including stops at Rook’s Rest as the usurper king learns what it’s like to be a smallfolk. I would be more annoyed about House of the Dragon setting up such a clear redemption arc for a male character on an otherwise female-centric show if Tom Glynn-Carney wasn’t so good at playing a low status, humbled aristocratic.
The Battle Above the God's Eye will take out two main players.
This event from the books, which I think will most likely happen at the end of season 3, is less of a battle and more of a duel between Daemon Targaryen and Aemond Targaryen. Spoiler alert: both of them die. If House of the Dragon season 3 kills off one of the main three characters, my prediction is Daemon.
However, the book claims that Daemon might have secretly survived and left Westeros, and I wouldn't put it past the show to lean into that idea to keep Matt Smith around for one more season. He’s already gone off script in season 3, searching for rebels in King’s Landing when the book has him hanging with Nettles in the Riverlands.
Or maybe I'm totally wrong, and God’s Eye won't happen until season 4, in which case I apologize for spoiling an episode of television we probably won't see until the next US presidential election year.
The “Rhaena is Nettles” theory could change her fate.
That said, one change the show made could mean that another family member is at the God’s Eye: Rhaena Targaryen, whose character has been merged with the afore-mentioned character called Nettles. In the book, Nettles is a mysterious dragon-riding Targaryen bastard (a.k.a. a “dragondseed”) who rides a rogue dragon named Sheepstealer. Nettles ends up hunting for Vhaegar with Daemon, and that’s how they all end up at the God’s Eye.
In the penultimate episode of House of the Dragon season 3, Rhaena expresses an interest in hunting Vhagar to redeem herself and her dragon (Sheepstealer) for Jace’s accidental death.
What if she’s there? What if the rumor from the books that Daemon survived the God’s Eye and went to live with Nettles comes true in the show, and Daemon and Rhaena go into father/daughter exile together? That could be interesting. The Rhaena of the books has a much happier ending, so it’s a bummer, but...
Helaena’s pregnancy “solves” one problem and causes others.
In the fourth episode of season 3, we learn that Helaena Targaryen has been hiding a pregnancy. This reveal is more dramatic than it might seem. In the books, Helaena has three children at the beginning of the Civil War: Jaehaerys, Jaehaera, and Maelor. Only the “J” names have shown up on the series. The assassins “Blood and Cheese,” in the books, make Helaena choose between her sons Jaehaerys and Maelor. She chooses Maelor to die, but they let him live. That obviously does not happen on the show.
Of all the things about House of the Dragon that could have ticked off Martin, it happened to be this. The Fire & Blood author blogged in September of 2024 about several change the show made to his text that he apparently can’t abide. One of them was “Maelor the Missing,” in his words, because the child’s storyline effects other characters including Helaena herself. It’s a butterfly effect thing.
In the books, Maelor ends up dying in the year 130, a.k.a. not too long after the events we’re seeing unfold in season 3. So what’s the point? Is the show just appeasing the butterfly effect that Martin complained about? Is there going to be some kind of paternity drama? There are already theories that this baby is Aemond’s, not Aegon’s.
Plus, if the former Queen gives birth to another potential heir to the Iron Throne while Rhaenyra is ruling from King’s Landing and the Greens are under siege, that causes so many other problems. Rhaenyra will be pressured to kill the baby, if not Helaena as well. We all saw how eager Daemon was for her to get rid of the imposter Daeron. That’s going to further drive the wedge between her and Alicent, no matter what happens.
Ormund Hightower could try to bring back the Faith Militant
Season 3 has introduced a new Big Bad by the name of Ormund Hightower, played by James Norton. While he’s definitely a Green, the book does not portray him as a classic Game of Thrones plotting villain. But the show has made it clear he’s up to something.
He’s an absolute diva with a strong aversion to smells. He has raised Alicent’s youngest son, Daeron, in a way that we can only describe as toxically masculine. Ormund does not believe women should rule and believes that House Targaryen is made up of savages. (Largely because of all the incest, which... I maybe wouldn’t use that word, but, fair.) He’s homophobic in kind of a stereotypically fratty way, tossing disparaging remarks at his own brother.
Ormund is also a very devout practitioner of the Faith of the Seven. As you may remember from that time Cersei’s plot against Margaery Tyrell royally backfired on Game of Thrones, the fundamentalist religion once came with an army. The “Faith Militant” were disbanded a few decades before the events of House of the Dragon, by the old king we saw die in a flashback in the pilot. Cersei brought them back. But you actually don’t want them in charge if you happen to be sleeping with a blood relative or happen to have a gay brother...
What if Ormund’s plan is to resurrect the Faith Militant to take Rhaenyra down? We know the plan won’t work, and could backfire against him, but it would be an interesting (and likely brutal) way to further seed discord in the realm.
Tyland Lannister’s fate is uncertain again!
This character’s journey is a total mystery to me. Around this point in the books, he’s being tortured in King’s Landing. But on the show he’s joined Larys and Aegon II. They were a little trio for a minute; and after that business with Sunfyre, Larys is out and Tyland is Aegon’s companion. What is this show up to?!
Alicent’s Adventures In Harrenhal...
Soooo, Alicent never went to Harrenhal in Fire and Blood. This is another major change. She basically never leaves King’s Landing, and now the show has sent her on multiple excursions. The bodyguard who died protecting her in Harrenhal towards the end of season 3, Adrian Redfort, dies in a different way in the book. And Alicent certainly never tried to poison and kill her son Aemond. However, in the book Alicent is accused of poisoning another character, much later on in the story. Perhaps this is subtly setting up this arc.
Mysaria may have gotten in over her head.
Did you catch that warning that the Queen’s lover/Master of Whisperers got in the penultimate episode of Season 3? Game of Thrones fans will tell you that any time a side character steps into the spotlight, it may mean that they’re about to die. In the books, this character dies after Rhaenyra flees King’s Landing. We may not be seeing much of her in Season 4.
New characters we could potentially see in season 3.
Let's wrap up with something else to look forward to: new characters! Two contenders for the Iron Throne come out of left field at the end of the war: a former squire named Trystane Truefyre and a possible Targaryen bastard called Gaemon Palehair. IMHO we should meet them in season 3, but that remains to be seen. If the show returns to the North, we could see Jeyne Arryn's girlfriend Jessamyn Redfort and/or a Stark bastard named Sara Snow.
Meanwhile, in Essos, tiny baby Viserys Targaryen is raised in captivity by a magister named Bambarro Bazanne (bonkers name, even by ASOIAF standards) and later by members of House Rogare in Essos. He does eventually return to Westeros, but if we see that on screen I think it will definitely be in season 4. He has to live... he’s thee Daenerys Targaryen’s most direct relative on House of the Dragon.
